Friday, April 7, 2000
Census data shows further N.D. population decline from 1990-1999
By David Knutson / Herald Staff Writer
The Australian Outback may be a model for rural North Dakota's future given the current population decline, according to a UND rural sociology associate professor.
Recent U.S. Census Bureau data show that from 1990 to 1999 the state lost 5,134 residents or 0.8 percent of its total population, according to the recent Population Bulletin released by the North Dakota State Data Center at NSDU. Grand Forks County declined by 6,009 residents going from 70,683 in 1990 to 64,674 in 1999.
Moving to Minnesota?
Meanwhile, Minnesota's population grew by 399,800 residents from 1990 to 1999, according to 1990 census data an overall increase of 0.8 percent.
Not all of North Dakota's counties experienced population loss. Cass County had the largest increase from 1990 to 1999, at 13.6 percent. That was followed by Burleigh and Rolette with increases of 11.3 percent and 10.8 percent respectively.
Only North Dakota, Connecticut and Rhode Island showed a decline in population from 1990 through 1999 while the fastest-growing states were Nevada, Arizona, and Idaho, according to the report.
Richard Rathge, data center director, said in a recent statement on the numbers, that despite the decline, a turnaround in birth numbers could lead to population growth in the state.
"The losses are due to a significant drop-off in births and our inability to keep young families in most of the rural areas of our state," Rathge said. "We can quickly reverse our downward population trend, however, if we could find an appropriate solution to the economic development challenges facing our rural areas."
No quick turnaround
But according to Curtis Stofferahn, associate professor of rural sociology at UND, the problem may not be that easy to fix.
"It's a foregone conclusion you will see a graying population and I don't see any way to turn it around," Stofferahn said. "We have an increasing number of counties that are frontier counties. It means we're unsettling everything west of the Red River Valley. . . The model we're looking at for North Dakota is the Australian Outback. We're going to have a large ranch with hired labor and no neighbors. It's a frightening thing."
Stofferahn said even counties with increasing populations look to lose numbers in the long run. Much of the increase in Cass County are North Dakotans over child-bearing age moving there.
"We're seeing the impact of the farm crisis in the 80s," he said. "They aren't raising kids here. Fargo is growing but they aren't having children. (Residents) are past child-bearing age. They may be growing but you look at the data on high school graduates, they are projecting the number to decline dramatically."
Farm crisis impact
While much of the population decline in the 1990s has been attributed to the farm crisis of the 1980s in North Dakota. Stofferahn said the farm crisis of recent years is already impacting population.
"We're seeing it now," he said. "People are voluntarily giving up their farms. There's no opposition. There's no will to resist any more."
The one area of population growth for child-bearing residents of North Dakota are Native American reservations, Stofferahn said.
Sioux and Rolette counties -- both with reservations in their counties -- saw increases in population, according to census data. Sioux County went from 3,761 residents in 1990 to 4,156 in 1999. Rolette saw an increase from 12,772 in 1990 to 14,229 in 1999.
"Reservation counties have a high birth rate," he said.:
