By Adam Entous
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A majority of U.S. senators said they would support a breakthrough trade agreement with China despite concerns over Beijing's human rights record and threats to invade Taiwan.
Fifty-two lawmakers in the 100-member Senate said in a Reuters poll that they would vote in favor of legislation granting China permanent trading privileges in the U.S. market, just enough to ensure passage by a narrow margin. Four senators said they were opposed; 42 said they were undecided.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the agreement would garner a 218-vote majority in the 435-member House of Representatives, though White House officials were optimistic in the face of stiff opposition from labor unions and other groups. It must clear both the House and Senate to become law.
"This is extremely encouraging and is an indication of broad support," Commerce Secretary William Daley said of the Senate tally, conducted Feb. 21-March 1 after China's latest threat to attack Taiwan sparked a backlash from Taipei's congressional allies.
According to the poll, at least 15 senators on the 20-member Senate Finance Committee would support the pact. The committee could be the first to take up the agreement. But many Senate supporters stressed that their votes could change if Beijing continued its saber-rattling or took other measures.
Under the landmark trade agreement hammered out in 1999, China would open a wide range of markets, from agriculture to telecommunications.
In exchange, the White House says, the Republican-led Congress must grant China permanent normal trade relations (NTR) -- a status Beijing is now granted only after an annual congressional review.
Permanent NTR would guarantee Chinese goods the same low-tariff access to U.S. markets as products from nearly every other nation.
Clinton has made the bill's passage his top legislative priority for his last year in office, and pro-trade business leaders have launched their biggest lobbying campaign since the 1993 North American Free Trade Agreement.
The trade deal is a crucial step for China to join the World Trade Organization, though Beijing must still wrap up negotiations with the European Union and other WTO members to enter the Geneva-based body, which sets global trading rules.
Just last week Republican and Democratic leaders warned Clinton that permanent NTR for China was in peril in the Senate because of concerns about Taiwan's security.
Senate supporters also singled out Vice President Al Gore for attack, saying he set back permanent NTR by promising to add labor and environmental provisions to future pacts if elected president in November.
Gore Stance Key
"Most of the Democrats that are on the fence are waiting for a clear signal from Al Gore," said Sen. Pat Roberts, a Kansas Republican. "If he's not out front, you're not going to get any Democratic votes for it or a majority in the House, and maybe not in the Senate."
But according to the poll, 20 Senate Democrats said they would join 32 Republicans in supporting permanent normal trade relations for China. While citing concerns about human rights and security, they said engagement was the best way to shape Beijing's policies.
"This is a communist government and they're always going to be doing things that provoke us," said Nebraska Democrat Robert Kerrey. "But we're headed in the right direction. China is liberalizing its economy, making progress toward improved treatment of its own people. I think (the agreement) puts us in a much stronger position on behalf of labor and the environment."
Of the 42 undecided senators, several said they were leaning in favor of the pact, or would support it if parallel legislation was approved to boost American military ties with Taiwan. Others said they were concerned about Chinese weapon sales to rogue states, and a recent U.S. government report citing a growing number of human rights abuses.
"I'm very much a free-trader," said Tennessee Republican Fred Thompson. "But the idea that we can just go down a 'strategic partnership, free-trade' path without taking those things into consideration is very shortsighted, and I don't think we can do that."
Four senators -- Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold, Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning, New Hampshire Republican Bob Smith and Minnesota Democrat Paul Wellstone -- said they would oppose permanent NTR for China. Arkansas Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson said he was leaning against the pact.
It remained unclear when the House and Senate would vote. The White House hopes for final passage by June. Timing is critical since the congressional session will be cut short by the November election and some lawmakers may balk at the trade agreement as the campaign heats up.
Though House Republican leaders expect close to two-thirds of their caucus to support the trade agreement, they are counting on Clinton to round up 90 to 100 Democratic votes. It is unclear how many Democrats, however, will back the president. They are under intense pressure from labor unions to oppose the pact and to demand that China improve human rights and labor standards before joining the WTO.
"It going to be difficult," Daley conceded. "But I think we'll get the 218 votes.":
