Associated Press / Tom Raum, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Despite labor's plans to protest one of President Clinton's top economic objectives this week, supporters of permanent trade privileges for China increasingly sense they will prevail.
"I think we have the momentum, frankly," said Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., after what proponents viewed as one of their better weeks in some time.
They cited the setting of a House vote on the trade bill during the week of May 22, and the rhetorical restraint shown by Taiwan and, until recently, China, in the aftermath of Taiwan's presidential election last month.
Members of Congress spoke before Beijing stepped up pressure on Taiwan over the weekend by renewing its warnings against moving toward independence.
Labor organizations say 10,000 union activists will be in Washington this week to protest free-trade policies in general and the China bill in particular.
Joining environmentalists, students and others, they plan demonstrations to coincide with the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. A Capitol Hill rally was set for Wednesday to protest the China trade legislation.
In advance, the AFL-CIO began running television spots for two weeks in Washington and New York to protest the trade bill. The ads include excerpts of an interview with Chinese dissident and former prisoner Wei Jingsheng. The labor federation also says it will show the ads in select congressional districts during the April congressional recess.
Bracing for this week's protests, congressional sponsors of the China trade bill said they are not underestimating their job in building support for the bill.
They hoped that House Speaker Dennis Hastert's setting of a date, well in advance of the summer political conventions, would help sway undecided House Democrats.
Also, Beijing's reluctance until recently to intensify, or even to reiterate, its threat to use force against Taiwan if the island's government continued its resistance to reunification talks had helped calm congressional worries about a confrontation between China and Taiwan.
The restraint had made it less likely that the Senate would attempt to combine the China trade measure with a contentious bill to increase U.S. military ties with Taiwan. Such a linkage could have undermined support for the trade bill.
Compared to the difficulties faced in the House, Senate passage of the bill is "a slam dunk," Baucus said. The Senate is expected to begin debate on the bill later this month, long before the House debate.
House Democratic Whip David Bonior predicts that as many as 150 of the House's 211 Democrats will vote against the trade bill. So far, he has been able to come up with the names of only 19 Democrats who previously voted to give China annual trade benefits and now say they will vote no.
Bonior, D-Mich., is leading opposition among Democrats. House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., is officially undecided, while attempting to gather support for his own planned package of side agreements on proposed labor and environmental protections. The Clinton administration has warned that it will oppose putting conditions on China's trade status.
The bill would extend to China the same low-tariff access to U.S. markets enjoyed by almost every other U.S. trading partner. China already has this access, but it must be renewed annually. The bill would end these annual reviews and ease China's entry into the Geneva-based World Trade Organization. Joining the White House are open-trade lawmakers and business groups.
But organized labor, environmental groups and some human rights organizations do not want to give up the leverage they contend they have over China with the annual reviews.
Rep. Robert Matsui, D-Calif., the top Democratic supporter of the bill in the House, hoped Hastert's decision to set a votes will coax wavering Democrats or at least guard against further defections. Still, Matsui said in an interview, "I don't want to discount the difficulty."
Matsui predicts that between 70 and 80 Democrats will vote for the bill. While far short of the 90 to 100 votes that Republican leaders have challenged Democrats to produce, it could still lead to a victory -- if the bill is supported by about 150 Republicans, as is generally expected. For victory, 218 votes are needed if all 435 House members vote. "I think we can prevail," Matsui said.
Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif., chairman of the House Rules Committee and a leading supporter of the bill, also predicts ultimate victory. "I am very confident that we are going to win," Dreier said. However, he suggested, ``Democrats are trying to have it both ways.":
