A warming planet and more frequent extreme weather events will change how food is produced in the European Union (EU) in 2040 and beyond. But what about the sector’s contribution to fighting the climate crisis?
European policymakers are working on how to achieve the bloc’s 2040 climate target. The contribution from agriculture to achieve that target will be central to that discussion, as the relevance of the sector’s climate pollution grows as other parts of the economy decarbonize.
One measure that could help steer the sector in the right direction would be a sector-specific greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target, as it would help guide investment decisions for farmers and provide the sector with the direction of travel.
The EU is not starting from scratch: several EU countries already have such targets, primarily to achieve their intermediate climate targets until 2030.
Here we look at which countries have 2030 targets, and how setting targets for 2040 could build a broader long-term plan that unlocks agriculture’s significant potential for cutting climate pollution.
Download a PDF overview of agriculture climate targets across EU countries.
Many countries already have national climate targets for their agricultural sector
There is great potential for the agriculture sector to contribute to climate action with the right policy mix. Setting GHG emission reduction targets for the agriculture sector can be a useful tool to steer it in the right direction. While the EU did not set an agriculture-specific climate target as part of its policy package to meet its 2030 climate change, many EU countries did set a sector-specific emissions reduction target as part of their national efforts.
In many EU countries, there is a solid basis for setting GHG emission-reduction targets for the agriculture sector in 2040. Half of all EU countries already have some form of climate target for their agriculture sector that contribute to achieving the EU’s 2030 climate target1 (see table at the bottom of the page for more details). Three additional countries are also in the process of preparing such targets.
A few countries, like Germany or Luxembourg, have enshrined sectoral targets as part of their climate laws. More common, however, is that national climate laws call for the subsequent development of such targets, as is the case in Ireland — or that countries have simply included a sectoral target in their policy plans, like the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), without any explicit link to national laws.
Most countries with large agricultural sectors have set targets, with some key exceptions
Two-thirds of the EU’s agriculture emissions are covered by sectoral targets for agriculture.
Having a plan to address agriculture’s GHG emissions is particularly relevant in EU countries that contribute most to the EU’s agriculture emissions, as well as in countries where agriculture makes up a large share of the country’s total emissions. Many EU countries that fall into that category have realized that sectoral targets can be a good tool to provide guidance for the sector.
Of the EU’s 10 largest emitters of agriculture GHG emissions, seven have set sectoral emission reduction targets for agriculture. Only Poland and Italy, representing the EU’s third and fifth largest agricultural emissions polluters, have not defined any sectoral climate targets, nor do they have national climate laws that could provide such a legal basis.
While Spain does not appear to have set a sectoral target for agriculture GHG emissions, its National Energy and Climate Plan does provide sectoral projections for where it expects its agricultural emissions to be in 2030.2
The results are similar among EU countries for which agriculture GHG emissions are particularly relevant because they make up a larger share of the country’s total emissions. Only one country, Bulgaria, has not defined any sectoral climate targets.
Sweden misses the top 10 by a whisker, with the share of its agriculture GHG emissions to the country’s total coming in just a little lower than Portugal. Like Bulgaria, Sweden has also not set a climate target for its agriculture sector.
In 2025, Sweden’s Climate Policy Council determined that the lack of a clear emissions reduction target for agriculture impeded climate action and recommended that such a target be set, along with supportive policies. The country’s agricultural emissions have fallen by less than 2% since 2015.
Setting emission reduction targets for agriculture is the first step on a long road
While it is positive that more than half of all EU countries have (or will have) climate targets for the agriculture sector, target setting is only the first step. Digging just below the surface, it quickly becomes clear that many emission reduction targets set for 2030 have little ambition and/or countries are not on track to achieve these targets.
For example, Latvia’s target essentially stabilizes emissions at around today’s levels. Portugal has a modest reduction target for 2030 but is only on track to stabilize emissions. The Netherlands has a more ambitious target but is far off track from meeting it. Germany is close to meeting its 2030 target, but analysis shows that there is much greater potential to cut emissions in the sector than where the target is set, so it could be reducing emissions at a faster rate.
The challenge will become much more pronounced when setting longer-term targets for 2040. The EU does not have the policies in place to deliver on the (likely weak) contribution it has envisaged for agriculture as part of its 2040 package, let alone for unlocking the potential of the agriculture sector to deliver much more climate action.
Sectoral emission reduction targets for 2040 need to be commensurate with the level of action needed to address the climate crisis and drive transformation of the sector to more climate friendly farming practices, and be supported by a policy mix to support farmers in that transition.
Targets can also improve the ability to track the effectiveness of public support provided to the farm sector to deliver on common goods related to climate protection.
As the EU revises its climate policy architecture for 2040, EU policymakers should be including climate targets for the agriculture sector, and using those targets as a mechanism to track performance within the EU’s next long-term budget.
1 Not all EU countries with targets have set them for 2030 specifically but they at least cover that period (see table).
2 Our reading of Spain’s Law on Climate Change and Energy Transition suggests that the NECP should define sectoral targets, however, the emission projections in the NECP could not be clearly identified as targets, so we classified Spain as having no target.
